The Kansas City Chiefs, with all their flaws and inexperience, and the Indianapolis Colts, with all their injuries, are no longer part of the NFL playoff landscape. Looking back, each was probably fortunate to get an extra game this season. Indianapolis’ problems were evident all season.

A team which lives and dies with its offense lacked a running game most of the season, and wasn’t effective moving the ball on the ground against a very good Jets defense on Saturday night. And with fewer options available due to the absence of receivers Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, New York took Reggie Wayne out of the game (1 catch for 1 yard).

For once the passing of Peyton Manning was not enough. Last year’s Super Bowl losers lasted only 60 post-season minutes at home against a Jets team that had done its share of bumbling and stumbling down the stretch this season. Manning wasn’t awful (18 for 26, 219 yards, 1 TD pass and a 108.6 QB rating), but neither was he spectacular. He remains a threat to throw a TD on every play from scrimmage, but you wonder if the bloom is off the rose and whether opponents will view him the same way as they have.

In Baltimore, the Ravens showed the Chiefs that winning a weakened AFC West with a 10-6 record is one thing, and beating a quality team like Baltimore in the playoffs is quite another. Fingers will be pointed at quarterback Matt Cassel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis -- and rightly so. KC payed a price for Cassel’s indecisiveness, and Weis’s announced departure to the University of Florida raised concerns that his mind was on his next job rather than the current one.

But while the Chiefs lament their ineffective offense (Cassel threw three picks and KC fumbled twice), they also have to make some major changes to their defense. Sitting back in zone coverage doesn’t work against veteran receivers and a better-than-average quarterback.

The Chicago Bears must feel like they have a lottery ticket with all the right numbers. Expecting a tough fight against the Saints or Eagles in the division playoff round, the Bears instead catch the Seahawks, who are clearly the slowest wildebeest in the playoff herd. Seattle won only twice on the road this season (actually an improvement from a year ago, when they won only once). That one of the two victories came over the Bears (23-20, in Week 6) is probably not a concern for the Bears.

How Chicago wound up with No. 2 seed is a story in itself, the Bears taking advantage of chaos in the NFC East and West, the Vikings’ fall of a steep cliff, and Tampa Bay’s decline after a quick start. The Bears snuck in at 11-5 and the reward was a home game against the worst road team still alive. Life is good.

Seattle’s hopes lie in harassing the occasionally-schizophrenic Jay Cutler into a bad passing game. Cutler hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes in a game since Week 13 indoors in Detroit, and in the four games since that game has six interceptions.

Neither Matt Ryan nor Aaron Rodgers is at Brady/Manning Level yet, but the two quarterbacks are in the next tier down, and one will emerge with tons of street cred after their game next weekend in Atlanta. Only Philadelphia scored more points that Atlanta in the NFC this season, and the unassuming Ryan is the perfect poster boy for the unassuming and under-the-radar Falcons.

Atlanta is the best home team in the NFC, and the Falcons have enough receivers to deal with Green Bay’s sophisticated defensive schemes. And Michael Turner was purposely held back in the last two games (only 34 total carries) to keep his legs fresh for the playoffs. If Atlanta gets ahead, Turner should get a lot of touches.

Green Bay, meanwhile, emerged from the victory over Philadelphia healthy and well on the way toward making amends for that wild 51-45 playoff loss in Arizona last season.

Ranking the AFC playoff teams:

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2) -- There’s a sea of rookies on the defensive side of the ball and the offense was re-invented in mid-stream when Randy Moss was let go. Yet somehow, some way New England climbed its way to the top of the league after a shaky start that included losses to the Jets and – of all teams – the Browns.

How they win it all -- If you have one game to win and one coach/quarterback combination to do it with, you might pick Lombardi/Starr and you might pick Walsh/Montana. But Belichick/Brady also has to be part of the conversation.

How they could lose -- New England’s defense is like no other in that it gives up large amounts of yardage and then relies on someone making a big play. This could prove difficult against teams not prone to make mistakes, like Baltimore.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4) -- The Steelers got a pretty good indication early on that this would be a good season, winning three of four games while they waited for Ben Roethlisberger to return from his suspension. Except for the New England game, Pittsburgh’s defense has been dominant -- the Steelers allowed the fewest points in the league.

How they win it all -- With two weeks to rest their ailing defense, the Steelers get healthy and overwhelm a weakened Indianapolis in the division round. They harass Brady and New England in the AFC Championship Game, winning a squeaker in Foxboro.

How they could lose -- What are the odds on beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks?

3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6) -- Even in the darkest of days in late November/early December, when the Colts were losing to New England, San Diego and Dallas in consecutive weeks, did anyone think that Indy would not get to the tournament? It’s the playoffs, and Manning belongs in the playoffs. End of story.

How they win it all -- Quite simply, Manning gets so hot he’s uncontrollable. The Jets overplay their hand and try to blitz him, but he easily handles that before shredding the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That sets up an AFC winner-take-all in Foxboro, where the Colts were one pass away from beating the Pats in late November.

How they could lose -- Manning is a not a cold-weather quarterback, and back-to-back games in Pittsburgh and Foxboro prove too much for him.

4. BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) -- Not a bad record for a wild card team. In fact, 12-4 would have been good enough to win five other divisions. The Ravens are a little long in the tooth on the defensive side of the ball, but they gave up pretty much the same number of points this season (270) as they did in 2009 (261).

How they win it all -- The Ravens should get to the division round against a skittish Chiefs team getting its first taste of the playoffs. They have proven they can beat Pittsburgh, and played the Patriots tougher (23-20 loss) than any other playoff teams did. Baltimore has a solid offense that can use 5 wideouts or jam it tight and pound the ball.

How they could lose -- The stress of beating three solid teams in three weeks may be a little too much for the Ravens.

5.  NEW YORK JETS (11-5) -- It was this time last year that the Jets surprised everyone with a couple of playoff wins (Cincinnati, San Diego) on the way to the AFC title game. Whether they can do it again, given their wild inconsistency, is problematic.

How they win it all -- Somehow Mark Sanchez figures out a way to string three solid games together and the attacking defense which got the Jets off to such a fast start re-assembles. Momentum from a big road victory over Indy carries over for two more weeks.

How they could lose -- They won two road games last season, and would need to win three (at Indianapolis and probably at Pittsburgh and at New England) to get to the Super Bowl. Any takers on that?

6. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6) -- The Chiefs deserve hearty applause from going worst to first in the AFC West, and the reward is a playoff home game. But a lot of the oxygen was sucked out of the air by KC’s loss to Oakland in the season finale, and doubts about the Chiefs are bound to surface.

How they win it all -- Quite simply, the Chiefs need to overachieve here. Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, who have been through the playoff wars, get the team ready for post-season intensity and the Chiefs build on a home win over the Ravens to an upset of the Pats the following week. After that, anything goes.

How they could lose -- Very easily. Matt Cassel wilts under tremendous defensive pressure from the Ravens, and Jamaal Charles can’t get going on the ground. Baltimore bounces KC out before the Chiefs can get into second gear.

Ranking the NFC playoff teams:

1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5) -- Losing two of its last three shouldn’t concern Saints fans all that much. Last season they limped into the playoffs with three straight losses (after 13 wins) and we all know how that turned out.

How they win it all -- Wild card teams have a tougher road to the Super Bowl, but it can be done (1980 Raiders, 1997 Broncos, 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants). The Saints have the weapons to do it. They should not be overtaxed too much in taking care of Seattle in the first round.

How they could lose -- Exhibit A is the loss to Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Saints turned over the ball three times (one INT, two fumbles lost) and just looked out of sync against the Buccaneers. **it happens.

2. ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3) -- These guys are the Rodney Dangerfield on the NFL -- without the bug eyes, of course. As the top seed they will not have to play another road game, and they were 7-1 at home this season. But for some reason they are considered bogus. The Falcons will be trying to erase memories of their last playoff game -- that upset loss at home to Arizona two years ago.

How they win it all -- Everyone has flaws in the NFC, but the Falcons appear to have fewer than most. Matt Ryan is able to control the ball, and Atlanta’s underrated defense (which ranked 16th in yards allowed but 5th in points allowed) steps it up at home.

How they could lose -- Nightmare scenario for the owner Arthur Blanc. Philadelphia defeats Green Bay this coming weekend, then takes care of Atlanta the following week, setting up a Michael Vick-returns-to-Atlanta NFC winner-take-all for the NFC Championship. Atlanta struggles against Vick on turf.

3. CHICAGO BEARS (11-5) -- What to make of the Bears? Are they as good as they look when things are going good or as bad as they look when they aren’t? The answer is somewhere in the middle, and if they can get some decent yardage out of Matt Forte and protect Jay Cutler for the rest of the month, maybe they can slide past a few teams and be an unlikely Super Bowl participant.

How they win it all -- Soldier Field in January is no country for old men, and the Bears have a huge advantage after spending next weekend getting healthy. If Philadelphia survives against Green Bay, Vick returns to Chicago, where his spotty performance on a slick field in Week 12 was a costly loss for the Eagles.

How they could lose -- Start with their occasional but maddening inability to protect Cutler, who was sacked 6 times and slammed to the ground 3 or 4 more times last weekend in Green Bay. Cutler himself is somewhat of an enigma, and could implode if things go bad.

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6) -- Give credit to Andy Reid for keeping things together. No one else believed Vick could become what he has become, namely the expected No. 2 in the MVP voting this season. Vick has a ways to go (the Eagles are concerned about his inability to recognize blitz packages), but they got a starting QB/major impact player for nada.

How they win it all -- Vick’s running ability gives the Packers trouble this coming weekend, then the Eagles take advantage of a dry field and beat the Bears in Chicago. Vick then goes nuts against Falcons indoors.

How they could lose -- Any team capable of losing to the likes of Washington, Houston and Minnesota (throw out the Week 17 Green Bay defeat) is no lock. The Eagles give up 24 points a game, which puts pressure on the big-play offense.

5. GREEN BAY (10-6) -- It’s been an up-and-down season for the Packers, who figured to take control of the NFC North with the Vikings taking a huge step back. But the Bears surprised everyone and now the Pack face the prospect of winning three consecutive road games in order to get to the Super Bowl.

How they win it all -- They have the weapons on offense, but defensively the Packers have earned plenty of cred. They gave up the fewest points in the NFC (15 a game), and the 3-4 D installed by coordinator Dom Capers is perfectly designed to contain Vick this coming weekend. And if they catch the Bears the following week, they’ve already shown they can put Cutler on the ground.

How they could lose -- The road has a way of wearing down teams in the playoffs, and it just seems implausible that they could win at Philadelphia, at Chicago and (probably) at Atlanta in consecutive weeks.

6. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-9) -- Oh yeah, the Seahawks are in this too, aren’t they? Really? For a week, anyway. Fans in Seattle are so pessimistic about their team’s chances that a poll showed they wanted the Seahawks to miss the playoffs so they would get a higher draft pick.

How they win it all -- Phew. Pete Carroll no doubt is digging around for video of the 2008-09 Arizona Cardinals, who defied expectations and then bumbled and stumbled their way to the Super Bowl.

How they could lose -- As Dennis Green famously said, “They are who we thought they were.”

Do. Not. Panic.

Rinse, then say it again, Saints fans. It is way too early to run into the streets screaming over a single loss, even a loss to a team coached by Eric Mangini. The NFL is just too balanced this season, and the gap between 10-6 and 4-12 is about the width of an envelope. Losses to teams like the Browns happen, even if it difficult to watch when the league’s No. 1 team plays like it is running into piles of No. 2.

That said, the Saints’ 30-17 loss to the Browns in New Orleans was definitely a head-scratcher. Four Drew Brees interceptions, two of them brought back for touchdowns. Cleveland, of all teams, using razzle-dazzle plays that confounded the NO defense. Sean Payton on the sidelines doing a Norv Turner imitation. All weird stuff, one week in advance of Halloween.

There isn’t much time for the Saints to contemplate their navels, however, as the 5-1 Steelers come to town for a Sunday nighter in what probably passes for the biggest game so far in a season in which no clear favorite to win the Super Bowl has emerged. If Cleveland can win in New Orleans, then what will the Steelers do? (Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner, however, points out frequently that every game in every season is situational, and it makes no sense to shoot at shadows. Pittsburgh, for the record, opened as a 1-point favorite, which means the books have no clue who will win this one.)

If there is a high ground in the one-size-fits-all NFL, it is occupied by the Steelers. They have their quarterback back, they are once again death to run against, and the remainder of the schedule has enough two-foot putts to allow for an occasional slipup. Ben Roethlisberger brings fresh legs (and hopefully a fresh off-the-field persona) to the game. He has thrown 5 TDs passes in two games since returning from the suspension, and his quarterback rating (122) would be by far the best in the league if he had played in enough games.

The Steelers treat opponents in pretty much the same way that Attila the Hun dealt with terrified villagers, so it’s incumbent on the Saints to be able to get down and dirty in this one. Chris Ivory has been NO’s best runner this season, but he was stuffed by the Browns, and once Cleveland got the Saints running game under control, they teed off on Brees. Ivory won’t run for 100 yards -- no one does that against Pittsbrugh -- but if he can give the Saints offense a viable alternative, it can keep Brees on his feet and out of the hospital.

There are still miles to go before the AFC North and NFC are put to bed, but this game will help give one of these two teams a big lift headed into the final two months of the season.

The Vikings and their fans never saw what the rest of us did, did they?

They were willing to take the Brett Favre on his terms, and were willing to overlook the fine print at the bottom of the contract. The part that says that this is all about Favre, not about the team. All about Favre being able to run this team that way he ran the full-of-piss-and-vinegar Packers back in the day. All about winning on Favre’s terms or not winning at all. All about the head coach taking a back seat if he knows what’s good for him. All about one individual standing out even in the ultimate team sport.

The Vikes told Favre to take his time coming back, so he did. Until they begged him to return and get in some kind of rhythm before the real games started. At $1.25 million a game, how could he say no? All right. If you insist.

Now the devil is here to collect his soul, and the 2-4 Vikings trudge into Foxboro on Halloween afternoon desperate to stay relevant in a winnable NFC North. And the big question is: Will Favre continue to call the shots, or will coach Brad Childress finally show some spine and bench the 29th-ranked quarterback in the league?

“It goes back to taking care of the football,” said Childress after Sunday’s loss to Green Bay in which which Favre threw three interceptions. “You can’t throw it to them. You’ve got to play within he confines of our system. Sometimes it’s OK to punt the football.”

The Vikings’ game plan was for Favre to take the snap from center, turn and dutifully hand the ball to one of the top running backs in the league (Adrian Peterson) and wear down the Packer defense with short- and at most intermediate-range passes. That may have been Childress’s plan, but apparently Chilly didn’t pass it by Favre, who figures that possession of the football after each snap gives him veto power over anything the Viking coaches dream up.

The Vikings have this week to repair the damage done to whatever relationship still exists between Chilly and Favre before heading to New England, where the Patriots have not lost a regular-season game since 2008.

Randy Moss’s return to New England will certainly stir the stew a bit in Foxboro, and Moss -- whose motivation last season was questioned on several occasions -- figures to be on his best, stick-it-to-the-team-that-wouldn’t-pay-me behavior. Moss wasn’t having a great year in New England before the trade, but Patriots watchers insist that defenses have already adjusted to dealing with NE sans Moss. Wes Welker has only 11 catches since Moss’s departure, and the Chargers bottled him up (25 yards total) last Sunday.

Tom Brady was very un-Tom Bradylike against the Chargers (19/32 and just 128 yards), but he loves the spotlight that shines in big games, and the light will be brighter than bright when the wounded Vikings limp into town with Brett Favre and his 4 tons of luggage in tow.

Early public opinion indicates that fans in New England are split about 70-30 against the trade of Randy Moss to the Vikings, but in Minnesota there is unanimity -- Moss is welcomed back to the fold with open arms after a 5-year absence. Assuming he keeps the bitching and moaning to moderate levels and shakes the team down for a contract fat with zeroes, he could be what gives the Vikes at least a fighting chance in the NFC this season.

It was clear that something had to be done in Minnesota. The Vikings lost their first two games, and only getting the equivalent of a gimmee putt -- Detroit at home in Week 3 -- was able to save them from complete eradication. The arrival of Moss now gives Brett Favre a reason to get up in the morning, should open up tons of space for Percy Harvin’s short stuff over the middle and gives jealous Green Bay fans something to worry about again.

Assuming Moss doesn’t pull a hamstring in any practice that he chooses to attend in the next few days, it also makes the mercurial wideout the answer to a great trivia question -- who is the only player ever to play in back-to-back Monday night games?

But Monday night in New Jersey could bring the Vikings back down to earth. They get 4 from the Jets in a game that has oversized significance to both teams and will definitely impact the developing playoff picture in both conferences. Going 1-2 makes things hard. Starting out 1-3 is another story entirely, and with a schedule created by the devil himself (Dallas at home the next week, followed by trips to Green Bay and New England) the Vikings have to stiffen their spines in this one.

It’s doubtful that the high-flying Jets will make things too easy for the Vikings. New York has already cleaned house in the AFC East with consecutive victories over the Patriots, Dolphins and Bills, and that loss to the Ravens on opening day now seems about at bothersome as a mosquito in mid-January. Plus, any concerns that Mark Sanchez is not ready for prime time have been laid to rest in the wake of three solid performances in a row -- while no one was watching, Sanchez has moved up the QB ladder and now has the 4th-best QB rating in the league (105.3). And there is none of the confusion that was so evident in the middle of last season -- he has thrown 8 TD passes and exactly zero interceptions.

And if the prospect of another Moss/Darrelle Revis matchup is not juicy enough, consider the fun inherent in the return of Favre to New York. Favre’s last effort in New York was marked by a slew of interceptions and the Jets’ lying about his injuries, and it’s not likely he’ll get a warm welcome from Fireman Ed and the other 70,000 or so fans who’ll be on hand.

Favre. Moss. Sanchez. Revis. Harvin. Rex Ryan. Adrian Peterson. LaDainian Tomlinson. Monday night.

Does it get any better than this?

In the Peyton Manning era the Colts just do whatever it takes to win.

If they need to pass the ball 35-40 times a game, they do it.

If they need to run the ball, they do it.

If they need a stop on defense, they do it.

One thing the Colts don’t do is panic, so you won’t see the players jumping off bridges after a surprising 2-2 start that has given life and hope to fan bases in Jacksonville, Tennessee and Houston. One-quarter of the season is in the bank, and the division still hasn’t sorted itself out.

Indianapolis hosts undefeated (3-0) Kansas City this week, and if the Colts are in a free-fall and the Chiefs are on the rise, you wouldn’t know it from the line. Indy is a solid 8-point favorite, which is one indication that not everyone is convinced that the Colts’ season is already in the dumper.

“We’re a .500 team,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell earlier this week before adding the Yogi Berra-type caveat, “but I don’t think that’s who we are.”

Huh? We think Caldwell means that his guys are a better team than they’ve showed, especially in the opening-day loss to the Texans and in last week’s bizarre defeat in Jacksonville, when the horses were taken out on a 59-yard field goal at the final gun. If Caldwell is right, Indy needs to start getting things right this week against the Chiefs, because with two division losses already the Colts are in essence dead last in the four-team pack.

KC’s fans, meanwhile, are giddy with the team’s best start in over a decade and loving every minute of it as the team once again becomes relevant in an AFC West that is clearly up for grabs. It matters not a bit that the Chiefs scored the early-season hat trick by surprising a perennially slow-starting San Diego team on opening day, then got fat with victories over weak sisters Cleveland and San Francisco. Like in golf, in the NFL they don’t ask how, just how many, and at last check KC was the last remaining undefeated team in the league, even if the 2007 Patriots aren’t much concerned about them tying their 16-0 regular-season record.

The Chiefs have had a few weeks to get ready for Peyton Manning, who is the top-ranked passer in the league (112.2 rating) and has 11 TD passes in four games. Manning is capable of taking care of the over total (it’s 44.5) all by himself and the Chiefs have some kids in the secondary. Usually that’s a lethal mix, but KC is confident and coming off its bye week has had two weeks to rest up and prepare.

One thing to keep an eye on is how well KC’s offense is able to move the ball against a Colt defense that has been hit hard by injuries. Bob Sanders, Indy’s best defender, is done for the season, and earlier this week yet another safety, Melvin Bulitt, joined Sanders on injured reserve. In 2006 the Colts survived with a porous defense and went on to win the Super Bowl. This year just getting to the playoffs might be a chore.

The NFL world changes at warp speed. Both the Colts and Giants are amending their business models and dealing with injuries as they prepare for Manning Bowl II, Sunday night in Indianapolis.

New York tight end Kevin Boss will miss the game after suffering a concussion in the Week 1 victory over Carolina, an absence that will affect both the passing game and the running game. Boss’s blocking is important if not vital to the Giants’ running game, and New York is expected to pound the ball on the ground early and often against a Colt defense that gave up 231 yards and three TDs to undrafted free agent Arian Foster in a stunning opening-day loss to Houston.

Indianapolis has had issues against the run for years, and NFL analysts are still trying to figure out how the Colts repaired their run defense on the way to winning the Super Bowl in the 2006-07 season. A lot of it had to do with the return from injury by safety Bob Sanders, which brings up another problem: Sanders is hurt again, so badly that no one really knows when he’ll return from what is believed to be a torn bicep tendon. He’s spending the week visiting doctors, which is never a good thing, and he will definitely miss the Giants game.

The Colts’ loss to Houston in the opener has fueled speculation that at long last there might be a changing of the guard atop the AFC South, which has long been the domain of Peyton Manning. No one is ready to put Manning out to pasture, and anyone who can throw for 433 yards and three TDs (even in a loss) still has game. But unless the Colt figure out a way to put a reasonably successful run defense on the field, Manning will have the ball less and less this season as teams grind clock. The Texans feel like their due to collect on a long-overdue long, and they will keep knocking on the door.

Which brings up the Giants, and near and dear to coach Tom Coughlin’s heart is the presence of a power running game that can wear down teams. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs are as good a pair of RBs as it gets in the NFC East, and they both appear to have set aside a squabble about who will start and get the most carries. For the record, Bradshaw got 20 to Jacobs’s 12 on opening day, but Jacobs had the edge in touches (224-162) last season. So who knows? While the game will be won, lost or tied based on whether the Colts have more success stopping the run, TV will focus its attention on the Manning Battle. The brothers met one other time, on opening day 2006, and Peyton and the Colts got the last laugh, 26-21, in a game in which the QB siblings pretty much played to a standoff. The Colts were just a bit better. Since then the Giants have come to realize that the best they can hope for out of Peyton’s younger brother is a solid QB who can give NY some offensive balance to a power running game. And Sunday night, that might be enough.

Late Sunday afternoon and into the early evening is prime time for professional gamblers during football season. The sharps spend surprisingly little time watching the games they have bet on, preferring instead to dissect the early lines for the following week’s games, and crunch numbers seeking one or two mistakes which they can pounce on. Every so often during NFL season, oddsmakers – who are in a hurry to get lines on the board as soon as possible – trip up, and the pros want to be there when they do. And pros keep a close eye on the often-overlooked total, which many contend is easier to beat than the standard betting line.

Recreational bettors for the most part pay little attention to the O/U, and more than a few handicappers say that that is a mistake because with some work, betting over or under the total number of points scored in a given game can be easier than picking an ATS winner. The caveat is the word work. It doesn’t come free.

One thing that many handicappers also agree on is that bettors consistently undervalue the Under. Recreational bettors prefer offense to defense, but sharps look for opportunities to bet against the Over – and there are plenty of chances:

• Weather is a huge factor. Oddsmakers’ total number is based on a game being played in decent weather, and storms can hit the south early in the season and the north late in the year. If the number on this season’s Jan. 2 New England at New York Giants game is set the previous Sunday at 41.5 and early in the week a storm is predicted to move into the East, a hard Under play makes sense. If the storm hits you most likely will cash; if it doesn’t, you can still catch the Under if only one of the teams has an off day offensively. In 2008 a windstorm hit Buffalo on Dec. 28, and the Patriots passed only 6 times the entire game on the way to a 13-0 win that easily came in below the posted total of 35. Unders are almost always worth consideration in games played in the North (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, New England, New York, Green Bay, Chicago) late in the year. The number will never drop more than a couple of points, although some offshore books are compensating by keeping numbers stiff and adjusting the juice one way or another.
• Keep an eye on high-scoring teams and bloated numbers. With two high-scoring teams in last season’s Super Bowl, Vegas got big play early  on the Over, even with a 56.5 total (some sportsbooks dropped the number to 55 later in the week due to heavy betting on the Under). But adjustments were made defensively, not all bettors realized that to go Over both teams had to play well offensively, and the Under easily paid off when New Orleans won, 31-17. In big games some coaches tend to get conservative, depressing the total.
• Early in the decade 37 was the average number of points scored in an NFL game, but rules designed to help offenses have pushed that number up to 41.5. The half-point is crucial to O/U players because games can end 21-20, 24-17, 27-14. For lower-scoring teams (Cleveland, Buffalo, Tampa Bay), the number to look at is 37. Anything above that deserves a close look at an Under play; anything below should give the Over some consideration.