Pro football oddsmakers and handicappers both will say that in the playoffs it’s never a good idea to shoot at shadows.

“Everything, and I mean everything, is situational,” says Peter Korner owner of The Sport Club, one of the top oddsmakers in Las Vegas. “That’s not to say we ignore past results, but what’s happening right now is usually more important than what happened weeks ago.”

Bettors should keep that in mind as they play this weekend’s divisional games -- Jets/Patriots, Ravens/Steelers, Packers/Falcons and Seahawks/Bears.

The Seattle-Chicago matchup provides a good example. The Seahawks defeated the Bears, 23-20, in Chicago way back in Week 6. Bettors have latched on to that result, looked at the 10 points the Seahawks are getting, and have flocked to Seattle by a margin of 57-43 early this week. But that ignores other factors -- Seattle’s historic lousy play away from home, the fact that the Seahawks had only one win this year against a winning team (to 9-7 San Diego, which was playing horribly early in the year), and the rest that Chicago got last week as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. To say nothing  about the energy that Seattle had to expend to beat New Orleans, or the fact that the Seahawks needed the best run (and game) of Marshawn Lynch’s career to win.

In Pittsburgh, a similar dynamic is at work. The Ravens went into western Pennsylvania and gritted out a 3-point victory early in the season before Pittsburgh won later in the year, in Baltimore and also by 3. Even steven, right? Not quite. Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh while Ben Roethlisberger, perhaps the second-best [Brady] big-game QB in the league, was still serving a suspension. Charlie Batch had only 126 yards passing in that one, and in the next matchup Roethlisberger had more than double that.

Bettors, especially parlay players, would be wise to avoid wasting ammunition by shooting at shadows. With that said, the bet here is to go with the two rested favorites on both ends -- the Bears and lay the 10, and the Steelers -3.5.

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Tigers +190
Rays -230
O/U - 8

The Tigers are four games out of the lead in the winnable American League Central, but it feels like 40. They’ve lost 10 of 12 since the All-Star break, have four regulars on the disabled list, and are starting to waste decent pitching efforts from their starters because of their inability to hit with runners on base. On Tuesday night they stranded 11 in a 3-2 loss to the Rays. Tonight they are raiding the bullpen -- reliever Eddie Bonine (4-0, 2.72) gets a spot start as Detroit desperately tries to stay in a 3-team scrum in the Central. RAYS worth a wager here despite the lousy number.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Yankees -150
Indians +140
O/U - 9

Nobody has been paying a lot of attention, but the Yankees are getting some heat in the American League East -- Tampa Bay is just two games out. It’s not like the Yankees have hit a sandbar; NY has won five of its last seven. But the Yankees have not been crushing the ball -- after going over 7 straight times their games have gone under twice in a row in Cleveland, and the under deserves a serious look tonight. Fausto Carmona has won three straight and is coming off a terrific win over the Rays. Most of Carmona’s games tend to go under as the Indians can’t seem to score much for him. Then again, the Indians don’t score a lot of runs for any starter. Liking the trend to continue with another UNDER play here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers +102
Padres -112
O/U - 6

You have to give the Padres a ton of credit for putting together a starting pitching staff seemingly out of nowhere. Clayton Richard goes tonight against the Dodgers, and he epitomizes what San Diego has done to stay atop the National League West -- get to the middle innings and then turn things over to what may be the best bullpen in the majors. Clayton is 7-5 with a 3.57 ERA, but there are warning signs that he is wearing down -- he’s 1-1 in his last four starts but was lit up in two no-decisions. Best bet here is the OVER on a very generous 6-run number.

He doesn't come out and directly say it, but Jeff Mattingly from Bang the Book certainly gives some strong reasons to go with the Florida Marlins at home against the Colorado Rockies at Sun Life Stadium Thursday night to wrap up their four-game series. The Rockies are the underdog this game at anywhere between +175 to +200 and have a record of 2-6 in this situation the past three years, but their strong summer numbers help their case: they're 10-5 in July (+500) and 42-26 the past three years (+1100).

Still, the statistics certainly favor the Marlins this game. Here are some of the major points Jeff made:

1. Colorado's starter, Jorge De La Rosa, has two starts since coming off the disabled list and they haven't been pretty. In just 7.2 innings, he's given up 11 earned runs on just 10 hits for an ERA of 12.91. Also, in two road starts this year, he's 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA, giving up four home runs and nine walks in 8.1 innings.
2. Despite being even at home this season at 24-24 (-360), the Marlins have a slight scoring edge of 4.5 runs per game over their opponent's 4.4 runs per game. They're also 14-12 (+300) in day games this season and are 10-15 O/U in those outings.
3. Florida's starting pitcher for this game is Josh Johnson, a contender for the NL Cy Young award with a record of 10-3 and a league-low 1.62 ERA. His last outing consisted of a six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. His last start against the Rockies at home was last August, where he allowed just one run with 11 strikeouts, leading the Marlins to a 6-5 win.

Then again, the Rockies are 14-3 in the final game of a four-game series, and are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five starts on the road against a team with a losing record. It's easy to make a case either way in this one, but Jeff's points ultimately show the Marlins as the smart pick. What's your call?

Pick: Marlins

MLB Picks via [Bank the Book]

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Angels +160
Yankees -180

There is a logical reason for the heavy line here -- the Yankees just devour right-handed starters at home, and while the Angels are 8-0 in Joel Piniero’s last 8 starts, it makes no sense at all to take LA even with the inflated +160 number. The Angels don’t have an easy game (Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox litter the schedule) for the rest of the month, and LA is a below-.500 road team this season. They could be is deep hole in the American League West by the time August rolls around. The Yankees have the look and feel of another 100-win team, and that should be more than enough in the AL East. When you can throw out Javier Vazquez at the bottom of your rotation, you know you don’t have too many concerns. NEW YORK here, even at the bad price.

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Red Sox -110
Athletics -110

Oddsmakers are just playing for the vig here, but the value is with the home team. Boston’s Clay Buccholz is coming off a rehab Triple A start in which he didn’t get out of the fourth inning, and he hasn’t pitched into the 8th inning in any start since June 4. His overall numbers are good (10-4, 2.44), but he might not have enough stamina to go deep in this one. The Red Sox are gradually getting back players after a rash of injuries knocked them back a pace or two in the American League East, and they’re counting on their starting pitching to carry them to a wild card spot. Gio Gonzalez has been solid of late for the Athletics, going 2-1 in his last three starts and giving up only 6 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings. OAKLAND is the play here.

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Nationals -125
Reds +105

Hard to imagine the Nationals, who have scored a total of 8 runs in the last 5 games (including 4 in one game), being favored in any game in which Stephen Strasburg pitches. Strasburg (4-2, 2.04) is coming off six shutout innings in his last start, and should dominate this one since Reds hitters haven’t yet set eyes on him. Cincy is catching Strasburg at a bad time -- the Reds have been shut out 4 times in July, and 3 of those have been by 1-0 scores in the last 11 days. Ouch. Best bet here is WASHINGTON if you can get the Nats for the first 5 innings only. DC is reluctant to burn out Strasburg and is keeping him on a tight pitch count, but all bets are off after he leaves, and Washington’s offense is so bad it’s doubtful he’ll pick up any cheap wins.

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Mets +1.5 (+155)
Giants -1.5 (-175)
O/U - 7

The OVER here is hardly a gimmee, with Tim Lincecum going for the Giants, but the 7 appears to be an attractive number. New York’s R.A Dickey has lost three in a row and is starting to leak a bit, and Lincecum himself is 1-2 in his last three and not dominant of late. Toss in the fact that the Mets cover the over more often on the road than at home, and the added ammunition that NY has covered 6 of the last 7 in San Francisco, and you get the feeling that there will be some runs scored in this one. Go over.

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Rangers +1.5 (+140)
Red Sox -1.5 (-160)
O/U - 9

Boston’s goal has been to keep its head above water while waiting for its injured players to return, but the Red Sox have fallen three games back of Tampa Bay in the wild card race. The Rangers have made a decent-sized splash in the American League West and like what they see in starter Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 earned run average). Hunter has pitched only twice against Boston over the past two years, but he should give the Rangers an edge against spot starter Tim Wakefield. Wakefield (3-7) has been strafed of late and is not getting the job done at home (5.89 ERA at Fenway). Rangers, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road, are the pick here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Brewers +1.5 (+130)
Braves -1.5 (-150)
O/U - 8

The Brewers had high hopes of staying in the wild card race until late in the season, but despite three wins in a row leading to the All-Star break they have no realistic chance of getting to the postseason. The Braves started slow but have risen to the top of the National League East. Milwaukee’s Davis Bush has kept the Brewers in a lot of games and is 1-1 (with one no-decision) in his last three. Jair Jurrjens has been solid for Atlanta since returning from the minors, with a win over Washington and a no-decision against Philadelphia. Value here seems to be with the home team, with a lean toward the under for parlay players.

When "pro handicappers" offer free tips, it's safe to assume they're as close to a sure-bet as you can come. After all, they want you to be impressed by their intelligence enough to pay for the service!

That's why it might not be a bad idea to go with Jay Diamond from Locksmith Sports Picks who picked the Houston Astros at the San Diego Padres tonight, July 3 at 8:35 PM. Jay says the Astros are in line to upset the Padres after dropping last night's game 3-0, and he offers up some pretty good reasons:

1. The Padre's projected starter, Kevin Correia, has an ERA that's approaching 8.0 for the month of June in just five starts. In his last three home starts, he's given up 24 hits and 14 runs in a mere 16 innings.
2. The Astro's projected starter Bud Norris is starting just his second game after coming off the DL but had a solid outing in his return against the Milwaukee Brewers with six strikeouts to one walk. Over 48 innings this season, Norris has rung up 60 batters.
3. Despite the goose egg yesterday, the Astro's bats had been alive in their previous four games scoring five, five, six and nine runs. Considering the Padre's lineup is fairly week, something along these lines from Houston should be enough.

They might be the underdog in the lines, but as Jay pointed out the numbers favor the Astros for this match up.

Trust Jay's research on this one???

Pick: Astros

MLB Picks [via Locksmith Sports Picks]

Jay Diamond over at Locksmith Sports Picks has got the Royal’s ace Zack Greinke outdueling the Cardinal’s newly-acquired Jeff Suppan.

Jay gives no shortage of reasons, but here are a two that may encourage you to side with him:

1. Depsite not living up to his 2009 AL Cy Young award-winning performance this season, Greinke’s peripherals are still strong – with 83 K’s and 18 walks in 96 innings and a WHIP of 1.20 – and his last two outtings against top-10 offenses were stellar – 17 batters struck out with zero walks and only 11 hits in 16 innings.
2. The Royals own the MLB’s best batting average (.280).  This doesn’t forbode well for Suppan, who, before leaving the Brewers, had a BAA of .372 and WHIP near 2.0.

Pick: Royals

MLB Picks [via Locksmith Sports Picks]

Once you sift through all the sales propaganda at the top of the page, Steve Merril over at Expert Covers offers one of his free picks for today's MLB games -- St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22, 2010 7:07PM.

Steve recommends picking the UNDER with the line at 7.5 total runs. And he provides some pretty rock-solid reasons:

1. Toronto is only batting .199 as a team against lefties. That's well-below the dreaded Mendoza Line. And, unfortunately for the Jays, Jaime Garcia is whirling on the hill tonight.
2. Garcia has gone UNDER in 12 of his 13 starts!
3. The Cardinals have gone UNDER in 20 of their 34 road games.

Those are some pretty darn good reasons to pick UNDER.

Unless you're some sort of freak savant, you better listen to Steve.

So which way are you going?

Pick: Under.

MLB Picks via [Expert Covers]