WinTheTrophy Blog

Betting NFL Spreads

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 11:49:00 -0400

Seems easy.

Just hit on 55 percent of your NFL bets and you can make money for the season. No sweat. Read up a little bit, check the Friday injury reports and let nature take its course. If an octopus can pick World Cup games correctly, how hard can it be to pick pro football winners?

But if it was that easy, lots of people would be making a living at it and sports books would be forced out of business in less than a month. Picking pro football games against the spread is part knowledge, part insight, part crap luck. Lots of factors play into it.

There are few secrets in the NFL, and that’s the way the league likes it. Injuries have to be reported, the Internet allows oddsmakers (and bettors) to mine franchises for information. All that results in tight lines that are hard to beat.

But there are a few factors that bettors can look at before throwing down their money:

BET EARLY. Sportsbooks all try to be the first up with numbers, and the Vegas books and offshores are all trying to get early action. Games for the following week are often posted late Sunday afternoon. Be ready to hit as soon as you find a game that you really line. Make sure your team has not suffered any major injuries. Oddsmakers are good but not perfect; every once in a while they post a line that’s a few points out of whack. If/when they do, jump on it early before betting smooths out the number. Numbers rarely fluctuate more than a few points from late Sunday to game time the following Sunday, but you want those points in your pocket.
LIMIT YOUR BETS TO A FEW TEAMS. Knowledge is power, and it’s impossible to know everything about every game. Concentrate on fewer games and hit them harder. For several years I made an annual trip to Vegas and bet on every NFL game on a particular Sunday. The best I ever did was 8-6; the worst was 6-9. For the last few years I’ve limited myself to 3 games each Sunday and bet more, with better results.
RUN AWAY FROM DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES (especially on the road). The public loves favorites, and dominant teams draw lots of play. But there is talent on every team, and the margin between winning and losing so narrow, that it makes no sense to give away huge numbers. In 2007 the Patriots went undefeated in the regular season and started 8-0 ATS. But in their final 11 games (including post-season) they were double-digit favorites 10 times, and were 2-9 ATS in those games. Flip the coin over and look at the 2008 Detroit Lions, who were winless (0-16) SU. After going 0-4 ATS to start the year, they covered three of the next four, with all three covers coming on double-digit lines. Detroit, in fact, was 7-1 that season when getting 10 or more points, and 6-0 on the road.

Betting NFL Totals

Sun, 29 Aug 2010 11:46:00 -0400

Late Sunday afternoon and into the early evening is prime time for professional gamblers during football season. The sharps spend surprisingly little time watching the games they have bet on, preferring instead to dissect the early lines for the following week’s games, and crunch numbers seeking one or two mistakes which they can pounce on. Every so often during NFL season, oddsmakers – who are in a hurry to get lines on the board as soon as possible – trip up, and the pros want to be there when they do. And pros keep a close eye on the often-overlooked total, which many contend is easier to beat than the standard betting line.

Recreational bettors for the most part pay little attention to the O/U, and more than a few handicappers say that that is a mistake because with some work, betting over or under the total number of points scored in a given game can be easier than picking an ATS winner. The caveat is the word work. It doesn’t come free.

One thing that many handicappers also agree on is that bettors consistently undervalue the Under. Recreational bettors prefer offense to defense, but sharps look for opportunities to bet against the Over – and there are plenty of chances:

Weather is a huge factor. Oddsmakers’ total number is based on a game being played in decent weather, and storms can hit the south early in the season and the north late in the year. If the number on this season’s Jan. 2 New England at New York Giants game is set the previous Sunday at 41.5 and early in the week a storm is predicted to move into the East, a hard Under play makes sense. If the storm hits you most likely will cash; if it doesn’t, you can still catch the Under if only one of the teams has an off day offensively. In 2008 a windstorm hit Buffalo on Dec. 28, and the Patriots passed only 6 times the entire game on the way to a 13-0 win that easily came in below the posted total of 35. Unders are almost always worth consideration in games played in the North (Buffalo, Pittsburgh, New England, New York, Green Bay, Chicago) late in the year. The number will never drop more than a couple of points, although some offshore books are compensating by keeping numbers stiff and adjusting the juice one way or another.
Keep an eye on high-scoring teams and bloated numbers. With two high-scoring teams in last season’s Super Bowl, Vegas got big play early on the Over, even with a 56.5 total (some sportsbooks dropped the number to 55 later in the week due to heavy betting on the Under). But adjustments were made defensively, not all bettors realized that to go Over both teams had to play well offensively, and the Under easily paid off when New Orleans won, 31-17. In big games some coaches tend to get conservative, depressing the total.
Early in the decade 37 was the average number of points scored in an NFL game, but rules designed to help offenses have pushed that number up to 41.5. The half-point is crucial to O/U players because games can end 21-20, 24-17, 27-14. For lower-scoring teams (Cleveland, Buffalo, Tampa Bay), the number to look at is 37. Anything above that deserves a close look at an Under play; anything below should give the Over some consideration.

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:47:00 -0400

Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Tigers +190
Rays -230
O/U - 8

The Tigers are four games out of the lead in the winnable American League Central, but it feels like 40. They’ve lost 10 of 12 since the All-Star break, have four regulars on the disabled list, and are starting to waste decent pitching efforts from their starters because of their inability to hit with runners on base. On Tuesday night they stranded 11 in a 3-2 loss to the Rays. Tonight they are raiding the bullpen -- reliever Eddie Bonine (4-0, 2.72) gets a spot start as Detroit desperately tries to stay in a 3-team scrum in the Central. RAYS worth a wager here despite the lousy number.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Yankees -150
Indians +140
O/U - 9

Nobody has been paying a lot of attention, but the Yankees are getting some heat in the American League East -- Tampa Bay is just two games out. It’s not like the Yankees have hit a sandbar; NY has won five of its last seven. But the Yankees have not been crushing the ball -- after going over 7 straight times their games have gone under twice in a row in Cleveland, and the under deserves a serious look tonight. Fausto Carmona has won three straight and is coming off a terrific win over the Rays. Most of Carmona’s games tend to go under as the Indians can’t seem to score much for him. Then again, the Indians don’t score a lot of runs for any starter. Liking the trend to continue with another UNDER play here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers +102
Padres -112
O/U - 6

You have to give the Padres a ton of credit for putting together a starting pitching staff seemingly out of nowhere. Clayton Richard goes tonight against the Dodgers, and he epitomizes what San Diego has done to stay atop the National League West -- get to the middle innings and then turn things over to what may be the best bullpen in the majors. Clayton is 7-5 with a 3.57 ERA, but there are warning signs that he is wearing down -- he’s 1-1 in his last four starts but was lit up in two no-decisions. Best bet here is the OVER on a very generous 6-run number.

Free MLB Picks: Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins

Thu, 22 Jul 2010 13:18:00 -0400

He doesn't come out and directly say it, but Jeff Mattingly from Bang the Book certainly gives some strong reasons to go with the Florida Marlins at home against the Colorado Rockies at Sun Life Stadium Thursday night to wrap up their four-game series. The Rockies are the underdog this game at anywhere between +175 to +200 and have a record of 2-6 in this situation the past three years, but their strong summer numbers help their case: they're 10-5 in July (+500) and 42-26 the past three years (+1100).

Still, the statistics certainly favor the Marlins this game. Here are some of the major points Jeff made:

Colorado's starter, Jorge De La Rosa, has two starts since coming off the disabled list and they haven't been pretty. In just 7.2 innings, he's given up 11 earned runs on just 10 hits for an ERA of 12.91. Also, in two road starts this year, he's 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA, giving up four home runs and nine walks in 8.1 innings.
Despite being even at home this season at 24-24 (-360), the Marlins have a slight scoring edge of 4.5 runs per game over their opponent's 4.4 runs per game. They're also 14-12 (+300) in day games this season and are 10-15 O/U in those outings.
Florida's starting pitcher for this game is Josh Johnson, a contender for the NL Cy Young award with a record of 10-3 and a league-low 1.62 ERA. His last outing consisted of a six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. His last start against the Rockies at home was last August, where he allowed just one run with 11 strikeouts, leading the Marlins to a 6-5 win.

Then again, the Rockies are 14-3 in the final game of a four-game series, and are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five starts on the road against a team with a losing record. It's easy to make a case either way in this one, but Jeff's points ultimately show the Marlins as the smart pick.

What's your call?

Pick: Marlins

MLB Picks via [Bank the Book]

Wednesday's Best MLB Bets

Tue, 20 Jul 2010 22:22:00 -0400

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Angels +160
Yankees -180

There is a logical reason for the heavy line here -- the Yankees just devour right-handed starters at home, and while the Angels are 8-0 in Joel Piniero’s last 8 starts, it makes no sense at all to take LA even with the inflated +160 number. The Angels don’t have an easy game (Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox litter the schedule) for the rest of the month, and LA is a below-.500 road team this season. They could be is deep hole in the American League West by the time August rolls around. The Yankees have the look and feel of another 100-win team, and that should be more than enough in the AL East. When you can throw out Javier Vazquez at the bottom of your rotation, you know you don’t have too many concerns. NEW YORK here, even at the bad price.

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Red Sox -110
Athletics -110

Oddsmakers are just playing for the vig here, but the value is with the home team. Boston’s Clay Buccholz is coming off a rehab Triple A start in which he didn’t get out of the fourth inning, and he hasn’t pitched into the 8th inning in any start since June 4. His overall numbers are good (10-4, 2.44), but he might not have enough stamina to go deep in this one. The Red Sox are gradually getting back players after a rash of injuries knocked them back a pace or two in the American League East, and they’re counting on their starting pitching to carry them to a wild card spot. Gio Gonzalez has been solid of late for the Athletics, going 2-1 in his last three starts and giving up only 6 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings. OAKLAND is the play here.

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Nationals -125
Reds +105

Hard to imagine the Nationals, who have scored a total of 8 runs in the last 5 games (including 4 in one game), being favored in any game in which Stephen Strasburg pitches. Strasburg (4-2, 2.04) is coming off six shutout innings in his last start, and should dominate this one since Reds hitters haven’t yet set eyes on him. Cincy is catching Strasburg at a bad time -- the Reds have been shut out 4 times in July, and 3 of those have been by 1-0 scores in the last 11 days. Ouch. Best bet here is WASHINGTON if you can get the Nats for the first 5 innings only. DC is reluctant to burn out Strasburg and is keeping him on a tight pitch count, but all bets are off after he leaves, and Washington’s offense is so bad it’s doubtful he’ll pick up any cheap wins.

Betting on Baseball

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 22:01:00 -0400

Besides battle fatigue brought on after long NFL and NBA seasons, there is a good reason why baseball draws such little action from bettors -- it’s just too hard for Joe Public to understand and requires time and research. Why pore over a dugout-full of statistics when it’s easier to sit at the beach with a cold one?

And that’s a shame, because professional handicappers say that there is far more low-hanging fruit for bettors in baseball than in the more-easily-understood NFL and NBA.

The ying and yang of baseball betting can be complicated for wagering newcomers. Since many games finish with a one- or two-run difference, a point (or run) spread like those offered for football and basketball doesn’t make sense. So the odds are often manipulated in the moneyline or the vig.

Baseball is built on statistics, and betting baseball is not much different. If you don’t enjoy analyzing numbers, chances are pretty good that betting baseball will get tired very fast. But if you’re a Sabremetric nerd with a gambling jones, and are still years away from carpal tunnel syndrome, it could be what you’re looking for.

Legitimate handicappers offer dozens of systems for betting baseball, some legit and some gibberish. But there is one unassailable fact that needs to be taken into consideration when throwing down hard-earned money on a game – that is, approximately 44 percent of games are won by underdogs. Pros who can’t agree that on breakfast cereal will almost to a man tell you that the way to win money in baseball is to find value in a dog, and hammer it. And if you can find a division rival road dog that is hitting the ball halfway decent, all the better.

Veteran handicapper Steve Merril says that bettors can often find an edge by tracking a team’s offensive production, as oddsmakers more often than not will set lines based on teams’ starters.

“Betting lines are based on the starting pitchers,” says Merril, “so often this is already factored into the equation. I think current form, especially current offensive form, is something that is often overlooked by both the oddsmakers and the bettors. Teams definitely go through hot and cold streaks, especially on offense as these players are in the rotation every day as opposed to a starting pitcher which only appears every fifth game.”

Merril points to the Orioles series in Texas this past weekend. “[Baltimore] has been the worst team in baseball all season and they all of a sudden have gotten hot offensively, batting over .300 as a team the past week and they go a perfect 4-0 at Texas this weekend, including winning three of those four games outright as a +200 underdog or higher. They outscored the Rangers 23-12 in those four wins and cashed a total of +9.8 units of profit on the moneyline. Baltimore had a similar hot streak at the end of June when they went 5-1 during a six-game period, outscoring their opponents 39-29 and cashing +4.2 units on the money line. If you remove those two recent hot streaks, the Orioles have been an atrocious 20-58 (.256) in all other games this season and -30 units on the money line.”

And if all this is a bit too much to deal with on a warm summer day, bear in mind that the first NFL exhibition game is less than a month away.

Thursday's Best MLB Bets

Wed, 14 Jul 2010 21:33:00 -0400

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Mets +1.5 (+155) Giants -1.5 (-175)
O/U - 7

The OVER here is hardly a gimmee, with Tim Lincecum going for the Giants, but the 7 appears to be an attractive number. New York’s R.A Dickey has lost three in a row and is starting to leak a bit, and Lincecum himself is 1-2 in his last three and not dominant of late. Toss in the fact that the Mets cover the over more often on the road than at home, and the added ammunition that NY has covered 6 of the last 7 in San Francisco, and you get the feeling that there will be some runs scored in this one. Go over.

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Rangers +1.5 (+140) Red Sox -1.5 (-160)
O/U - 9

Boston’s goal has been to keep its head above water while waiting for its injured players to return, but the Red Sox have fallen three games back of Tampa Bay in the wild card race. The Rangers have made a decent-sized splash in the American League West and like what they see in starter Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 earned run average). Hunter has pitched only twice against Boston over the past two years, but he should give the Rangers an edge against spot starter Tim Wakefield. Wakefield (3-7) has been strafed of late and is not getting the job done at home (5.89 ERA at Fenway). Rangers, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road, are the pick here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Brewers +1.5 (+130) Braves -1.5 (-150)
O/U - 8

The Brewers had high hopes of staying in the wild card race until late in the season, but despite three wins in a row leading to the All-Star break they have no realistic chance of getting to the postseason. The Braves started slow but have risen to the top of the National League East. Milwaukee’s Davis Bush has kept the Brewers in a lot of games and is 1-1 (with one no-decision) in his last three. Jair Jurrjens has been solid for Atlanta since returning from the minors, with a win over Washington and a no-decision against Philadelphia. Value here seems to be with the home team, with a lean toward the under for parlay players.

Free MLB Picks: Houston Astros at the San Diego Padres

Sat, 03 Jul 2010 15:20:00 -0400

When "pro handicappers" offer free tips, it's safe to assume they're as close to a sure-bet as you can come. After all, they want you to be impressed by their intelligence enough to pay for the service!

That's why it might not be a bad idea to go with Jay Diamond from Locksmith Sports Picks who picked the Houston Astros at the San Diego Padres tonight, July 3 at 8:35 PM.
Jay says the Astros are in line to upset the Padres after dropping last night's game 3-0, and he offers up some pretty good reasons:

The Padre's projected starter, Kevin Correia, has an ERA that's approaching 8.0 for the month of June in just five starts. In his last three home starts, he's given up 24 hits and 14 runs in a mere 16 innings.
The Astro's projected starter Bud Norris is starting just his second game after coming off the DL but had a solid outing in his return against the Milwaukee Brewers with six strikeouts to one walk. Over 48 innings this season, Norris has rung up 60 batters.
Despite the goose egg yesterday, the Astro's bats had been alive in their previous four games scoring five, five, six and nine runs. Considering the Padre's lineup is fairly week, something along these lines from Houston should be enough.

They might be the underdog in the lines, but as Jay pointed out the numbers favor the Astros for this match up. Trust Jay's research on this one???

Pick: Astros

MLB Picks [via Locksmith Sports Picks]

Free MLB Picks: St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

Fri, 25 Jun 2010 17:31:00 -0400

Jay Diamond over at Locksmith Sports Picks has got the Royal's ace Zack Greinke outdueling the Cardinal's newly-acquired Jeff Suppan.

Jay gives no shortage of reasons, but here are a two that may encourage you to side with him:

Depsite not living up to his 2009 AL Cy Young award-winning performance this season, Greinke's peripherals are still strong -- with 83 K’s and 18 walks in 96 innings and a WHIP of 1.20 -- and his last two outtings against top-10 offenses were stellar -- 17 batters struck out with zero walks and only 11 hits in 16 innings.
The Royals own the MLB's best batting average (.280). This doesn't forbode well for Suppan, who, before leaving the Brewers, had a BAA of .372 and WHIP near 2.0.

Pick: Royals

MLB Picks [via Locksmith Sports Picks]

Tuesday's Best MLB Bet -- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Toronto Blue Jays Over/Under

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 19:11:00 -0400

Once you sift through all the sales propaganda at the top of the page, Steve Merril over at Expert Covers offers one of his free picks for today's MLB games -- St. Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22, 2010 7:07PM.

Steve recommends picking the UNDER with the line at 7.5 total runs. And he provides some pretty rock-solid reasons:

Toronto is only batting .199 as a team against lefties. That's well-below the dreaded Mendoza Line. And, unfortunately for the Jays, Jaime Garcia is whirling on the hill tonight.
Garcia has gone UNDER in 12 of his 13 starts!
The Cardinals have gone UNDER in 20 of their 34 road games.

Those are some pretty darn good reasons to pick UNDER.

Unless you're some sort of freak savant, you better listen to Steve.

So which way are you going?

Pick: Under.

MLB Picks [via Expert Covers]