Pro football oddsmakers and handicappers both will say that in the playoffs it’s never a good idea to shoot at shadows.

“Everything, and I mean everything, is situational,” says Peter Korner owner of The Sport Club, one of the top oddsmakers in Las Vegas. “That’s not to say we ignore past results, but what’s happening right now is usually more important than what happened weeks ago.”

Bettors should keep that in mind as they play this weekend’s divisional games -- Jets/Patriots, Ravens/Steelers, Packers/Falcons and Seahawks/Bears.

The Seattle-Chicago matchup provides a good example. The Seahawks defeated the Bears, 23-20, in Chicago way back in Week 6. Bettors have latched on to that result, looked at the 10 points the Seahawks are getting, and have flocked to Seattle by a margin of 57-43 early this week. But that ignores other factors -- Seattle’s historic lousy play away from home, the fact that the Seahawks had only one win this year against a winning team (to 9-7 San Diego, which was playing horribly early in the year), and the rest that Chicago got last week as the No. 2 seed in the NFC. To say nothing  about the energy that Seattle had to expend to beat New Orleans, or the fact that the Seahawks needed the best run (and game) of Marshawn Lynch’s career to win.

In Pittsburgh, a similar dynamic is at work. The Ravens went into western Pennsylvania and gritted out a 3-point victory early in the season before Pittsburgh won later in the year, in Baltimore and also by 3. Even steven, right? Not quite. Baltimore defeated Pittsburgh while Ben Roethlisberger, perhaps the second-best [Brady] big-game QB in the league, was still serving a suspension. Charlie Batch had only 126 yards passing in that one, and in the next matchup Roethlisberger had more than double that.

Bettors, especially parlay players, would be wise to avoid wasting ammunition by shooting at shadows. With that said, the bet here is to go with the two rested favorites on both ends -- the Bears and lay the 10, and the Steelers -3.5.

I know that probably shocks many of you but I don’t really care. After nearly two decades of playing fantasy football from everything from spreadsheets to sophisticated online web sites I am hear to tell you I am finished and you should be too. What is the reason you ask? Well, good question. The answer is simple: boredom. I am bored with the draft. The draft as many of you can attest is nothing more than sophisticated guessing game. Sure, go ahead and tell me that picking players is a complex strategy of evaluating the players’ point output with a potential injury overlay that yields a numeric value that indicates a draft or no-draft decision. Whatever. How many times do you finish a draft, sit back and laugh like Dr. Evil because you are so certain this year you will dominate only to discover that after two quarters your franchise quarterback or running back is a heap of broke ass being shuttled off on one of those ambulance golf carts? Great. That was a huge waste of time (and often money) and we all know there is little to no way to recover from it. Try as you may to pick up a sleeper or trade for someone decent it ain’t gonna’ happen. Enjoy the entire season watching what could have been with your broke-ass team.

Are we having fun yet? In the best-case scenario, you draft a great team, no one gets hurts, and you dominate your league. Fun? I guess. Even in this case I find that after Sunday and maybe a few tweaks here and there or a player pick-up to fill a BYE spot I am bored. Nothing to do. I guess I can pretend like I am analyzing historical data, field conditions, win ratios, player match-ups, but I don’t, and that is more than I am willing to dedicate to a one day intravenous feed of information that leads me to react like a Pavlovian dog every time CBS plays its fantasy jingle. No catches? No touchdowns? So disappointing and I sit back and think about how lame this is. Even when something great happens I am not all that thrilled. Of course, every decade or so you get that player who scores 50 points from out of nowhere but 9 times out of 10 that player is, yep, on your bench. So fun.

Where do I spend my time now? With the big boys. I decided to pull up my pants and get off the porch and run with the big dogs. Each and every day I put my money and my reputation on the line in action that is virtually non-stop. I pick winners and losers and factor in spreads, over/unders, moneylines, parlays and so forth. Why is this better? Where do I start?

1. This action incorporates every single strategy point from fantasy and makes you take it to the next level. By betting on teams you now have to look at every facet of a match-up. Quarterbacks, RBs, WRs, Def, field, weather, and a multitude of other factors that lead to a decision. Now, it really gets interesting. Will the team I believe will win end up winning by a certain number or more? Hmmm. That changes things when my opponent gets 4 or 5 points. Maybe I’ll take the other team because I think they might win outright or at least keep it very close. Fantasy Football is checkers. A free and legal sport betting is three-dimensional chess.
2. Action. Lots of action. If I pick a football team to win I am no longer just watching one or two offensive players to make a run or a catch. I am watching the whole team and each and every snap could help me. Of course, if you take the under in an over/under you quickly learn a whole new betting position: all misses, fumbles, and missed opportunities are a good thing. Nothing like watching a game hoping that both teams miss field goals and bonk it off the rim.
3. Reload every day. Fantasy football is once a week and free and legal sports betting is every day. During the fall you have hundreds of games from college, pro football, basketball, hockey, and baseball.
4. You compete against the whole world. Beating seven other guys in your league is great but step-up and see how good you are in the big pond.

I could go on all day. Fantasy football is a cute little appetizer and free and legal sports betting is a porterhouse steak dinner. Not only is it bigger and more fulfilling, it is just plain better. Put down your cracker with Brie and join the free and legal sports betting world and become a sports genius heralded throughout the globe.

The signs were there for us to see, but amid the talk about the travesty of a 7-9 Seattle team making the playoffs, we were blind to the fact that the New Orleans Saints went into the playoffs with some serious flaws.

For one, the Saints were simply not the offensive team that they were a year ago when they began their march toward a Super Bowl title. For whatever reason -- injuries in the running game that led to a less-effective passing game -- the Saints scored almost 8 fewer points per game this season. And as a wild-card team, NO faced the prospect of having to do it on the road, not in front of "WhoDat Nation" in Louisiana.

It all added up to a surprising, if not stunning, loss to the Seahawks last weekend. The Saints were 10.5-point favorites heading in, and while it didn’t quite have the impact of the Giants’ Super Bowl victory over the Patriots a few years back, it still had fans coast-to-coast shaking their heads in disbelief. The Seahawks were supposed to be a one-and-done team, but refused to comply. And Seattle’s victory is now the reason that no one in the off-season will be clamoring for a change in seeding for teams that finish the regular season .500 or below.

In Philadelphia, calls to sign Michael Vick to a long-term deal have lost some volume after Vick’s 20-for-36 losing effort against the Packers. Doubts about Vick will no doubt resurface after throwing an end zone interception on the Eagles’ final offensive play of the season, and for a while anyway the team will spend part of the off-season the way it spent the early part of this one -- with a quarterback controversy.

Late-season injuries to Vick served as a reminder of why it is so difficult in the NFL to win with a running quarterback. Can a team really afford to turn its season over long-term to a player who gets hit as often as Vick has and will? And if Vick is not the answer, will the Eagles once again start the season with Kevin Kolb?

After beating the wounded Colts, can the Jets press their bet and win this coming Sunday against a Patriots team has a better quarterback, is better coach, is rested and almost never loses at home?

The answer probably lies somewhere in the netherworld between what-are-you-smoking? and maybe. The Jets will be pinning their hopes on the combination of good defense and bravado, although the D wasn’t much in evidence last month when the team met in the regular season, and the 45-3 beatdown forced the Jets to dial down the trash talk a bit.

The Jets can take comfort in the fact that they have played New England to a 2-2 draw in games this season and last, but location matters -- NY’s two wins came at the Meadowlands, while in games in New England, the Patriots have shown little mercy. Last year New England picked off Mark Sanchez four times in a 31-14 thumping.

New York’s chances also could be intertwined with the weather. Sanchez is a warm-weather California kid, while the Patriots are nearly invincible when the temperatures plummet and the snow is falling in Foxboro. But even if Sanchez doesn’t freak out, the Jets defense will still have to deal with a Patriots offense that rarely turns over the ball and a future Hall of Fame quarterback who has 36 TDs passes and only four interceptions this season.

IN PITTSBURGH, the Ravens and Steelers play what is in essence the tie-breaker after battling through two field goal games this season. Baltimore’s easy victory over Kansas City helped blunt one of Pittsburgh’s biggest advantages -- sitting last week courtesy of winning the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

Neither team was able to gain much separation in the two games played this season, but Baltimore has shown over the years -- and in Pittsburgh earlier this year -- that they know how to win on the road in the playoffs. But Pittsburgh will not make the mistakes that Kansas City did, and the Steeler defense gave up fewer points than any team in the league this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs, with all their flaws and inexperience, and the Indianapolis Colts, with all their injuries, are no longer part of the NFL playoff landscape. Looking back, each was probably fortunate to get an extra game this season. Indianapolis’ problems were evident all season.

A team which lives and dies with its offense lacked a running game most of the season, and wasn’t effective moving the ball on the ground against a very good Jets defense on Saturday night. And with fewer options available due to the absence of receivers Dallas Clark and Austin Collie, New York took Reggie Wayne out of the game (1 catch for 1 yard).

For once the passing of Peyton Manning was not enough. Last year’s Super Bowl losers lasted only 60 post-season minutes at home against a Jets team that had done its share of bumbling and stumbling down the stretch this season. Manning wasn’t awful (18 for 26, 219 yards, 1 TD pass and a 108.6 QB rating), but neither was he spectacular. He remains a threat to throw a TD on every play from scrimmage, but you wonder if the bloom is off the rose and whether opponents will view him the same way as they have.

In Baltimore, the Ravens showed the Chiefs that winning a weakened AFC West with a 10-6 record is one thing, and beating a quality team like Baltimore in the playoffs is quite another. Fingers will be pointed at quarterback Matt Cassel and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis -- and rightly so. KC payed a price for Cassel’s indecisiveness, and Weis’s announced departure to the University of Florida raised concerns that his mind was on his next job rather than the current one.

But while the Chiefs lament their ineffective offense (Cassel threw three picks and KC fumbled twice), they also have to make some major changes to their defense. Sitting back in zone coverage doesn’t work against veteran receivers and a better-than-average quarterback.

The Chicago Bears must feel like they have a lottery ticket with all the right numbers. Expecting a tough fight against the Saints or Eagles in the division playoff round, the Bears instead catch the Seahawks, who are clearly the slowest wildebeest in the playoff herd. Seattle won only twice on the road this season (actually an improvement from a year ago, when they won only once). That one of the two victories came over the Bears (23-20, in Week 6) is probably not a concern for the Bears.

How Chicago wound up with No. 2 seed is a story in itself, the Bears taking advantage of chaos in the NFC East and West, the Vikings’ fall of a steep cliff, and Tampa Bay’s decline after a quick start. The Bears snuck in at 11-5 and the reward was a home game against the worst road team still alive. Life is good.

Seattle’s hopes lie in harassing the occasionally-schizophrenic Jay Cutler into a bad passing game. Cutler hasn’t completed 60 percent of his passes in a game since Week 13 indoors in Detroit, and in the four games since that game has six interceptions.

Neither Matt Ryan nor Aaron Rodgers is at Brady/Manning Level yet, but the two quarterbacks are in the next tier down, and one will emerge with tons of street cred after their game next weekend in Atlanta. Only Philadelphia scored more points that Atlanta in the NFC this season, and the unassuming Ryan is the perfect poster boy for the unassuming and under-the-radar Falcons.

Atlanta is the best home team in the NFC, and the Falcons have enough receivers to deal with Green Bay’s sophisticated defensive schemes. And Michael Turner was purposely held back in the last two games (only 34 total carries) to keep his legs fresh for the playoffs. If Atlanta gets ahead, Turner should get a lot of touches.

Green Bay, meanwhile, emerged from the victory over Philadelphia healthy and well on the way toward making amends for that wild 51-45 playoff loss in Arizona last season.

Ranking the AFC playoff teams:

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (14-2) -- There’s a sea of rookies on the defensive side of the ball and the offense was re-invented in mid-stream when Randy Moss was let go. Yet somehow, some way New England climbed its way to the top of the league after a shaky start that included losses to the Jets and – of all teams – the Browns.

How they win it all -- If you have one game to win and one coach/quarterback combination to do it with, you might pick Lombardi/Starr and you might pick Walsh/Montana. But Belichick/Brady also has to be part of the conversation.

How they could lose -- New England’s defense is like no other in that it gives up large amounts of yardage and then relies on someone making a big play. This could prove difficult against teams not prone to make mistakes, like Baltimore.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (12-4) -- The Steelers got a pretty good indication early on that this would be a good season, winning three of four games while they waited for Ben Roethlisberger to return from his suspension. Except for the New England game, Pittsburgh’s defense has been dominant -- the Steelers allowed the fewest points in the league.

How they win it all -- With two weeks to rest their ailing defense, the Steelers get healthy and overwhelm a weakened Indianapolis in the division round. They harass Brady and New England in the AFC Championship Game, winning a squeaker in Foxboro.

How they could lose -- What are the odds on beating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in consecutive weeks?

3. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6) -- Even in the darkest of days in late November/early December, when the Colts were losing to New England, San Diego and Dallas in consecutive weeks, did anyone think that Indy would not get to the tournament? It’s the playoffs, and Manning belongs in the playoffs. End of story.

How they win it all -- Quite simply, Manning gets so hot he’s uncontrollable. The Jets overplay their hand and try to blitz him, but he easily handles that before shredding the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That sets up an AFC winner-take-all in Foxboro, where the Colts were one pass away from beating the Pats in late November.

How they could lose -- Manning is a not a cold-weather quarterback, and back-to-back games in Pittsburgh and Foxboro prove too much for him.

4. BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4) -- Not a bad record for a wild card team. In fact, 12-4 would have been good enough to win five other divisions. The Ravens are a little long in the tooth on the defensive side of the ball, but they gave up pretty much the same number of points this season (270) as they did in 2009 (261).

How they win it all -- The Ravens should get to the division round against a skittish Chiefs team getting its first taste of the playoffs. They have proven they can beat Pittsburgh, and played the Patriots tougher (23-20 loss) than any other playoff teams did. Baltimore has a solid offense that can use 5 wideouts or jam it tight and pound the ball.

How they could lose -- The stress of beating three solid teams in three weeks may be a little too much for the Ravens.

5.  NEW YORK JETS (11-5) -- It was this time last year that the Jets surprised everyone with a couple of playoff wins (Cincinnati, San Diego) on the way to the AFC title game. Whether they can do it again, given their wild inconsistency, is problematic.

How they win it all -- Somehow Mark Sanchez figures out a way to string three solid games together and the attacking defense which got the Jets off to such a fast start re-assembles. Momentum from a big road victory over Indy carries over for two more weeks.

How they could lose -- They won two road games last season, and would need to win three (at Indianapolis and probably at Pittsburgh and at New England) to get to the Super Bowl. Any takers on that?

6. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (10-6) -- The Chiefs deserve hearty applause from going worst to first in the AFC West, and the reward is a playoff home game. But a lot of the oxygen was sucked out of the air by KC’s loss to Oakland in the season finale, and doubts about the Chiefs are bound to surface.

How they win it all -- Quite simply, the Chiefs need to overachieve here. Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, who have been through the playoff wars, get the team ready for post-season intensity and the Chiefs build on a home win over the Ravens to an upset of the Pats the following week. After that, anything goes.

How they could lose -- Very easily. Matt Cassel wilts under tremendous defensive pressure from the Ravens, and Jamaal Charles can’t get going on the ground. Baltimore bounces KC out before the Chiefs can get into second gear.

Ranking the NFC playoff teams:

1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (11-5) -- Losing two of its last three shouldn’t concern Saints fans all that much. Last season they limped into the playoffs with three straight losses (after 13 wins) and we all know how that turned out.

How they win it all -- Wild card teams have a tougher road to the Super Bowl, but it can be done (1980 Raiders, 1997 Broncos, 2000 Ravens, 2005 Steelers and 2007 Giants). The Saints have the weapons to do it. They should not be overtaxed too much in taking care of Seattle in the first round.

How they could lose -- Exhibit A is the loss to Tampa Bay in Week 17. The Saints turned over the ball three times (one INT, two fumbles lost) and just looked out of sync against the Buccaneers. **it happens.

2. ATLANTA FALCONS (13-3) -- These guys are the Rodney Dangerfield on the NFL -- without the bug eyes, of course. As the top seed they will not have to play another road game, and they were 7-1 at home this season. But for some reason they are considered bogus. The Falcons will be trying to erase memories of their last playoff game -- that upset loss at home to Arizona two years ago.

How they win it all -- Everyone has flaws in the NFC, but the Falcons appear to have fewer than most. Matt Ryan is able to control the ball, and Atlanta’s underrated defense (which ranked 16th in yards allowed but 5th in points allowed) steps it up at home.

How they could lose -- Nightmare scenario for the owner Arthur Blanc. Philadelphia defeats Green Bay this coming weekend, then takes care of Atlanta the following week, setting up a Michael Vick-returns-to-Atlanta NFC winner-take-all for the NFC Championship. Atlanta struggles against Vick on turf.

3. CHICAGO BEARS (11-5) -- What to make of the Bears? Are they as good as they look when things are going good or as bad as they look when they aren’t? The answer is somewhere in the middle, and if they can get some decent yardage out of Matt Forte and protect Jay Cutler for the rest of the month, maybe they can slide past a few teams and be an unlikely Super Bowl participant.

How they win it all -- Soldier Field in January is no country for old men, and the Bears have a huge advantage after spending next weekend getting healthy. If Philadelphia survives against Green Bay, Vick returns to Chicago, where his spotty performance on a slick field in Week 12 was a costly loss for the Eagles.

How they could lose -- Start with their occasional but maddening inability to protect Cutler, who was sacked 6 times and slammed to the ground 3 or 4 more times last weekend in Green Bay. Cutler himself is somewhat of an enigma, and could implode if things go bad.

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6) -- Give credit to Andy Reid for keeping things together. No one else believed Vick could become what he has become, namely the expected No. 2 in the MVP voting this season. Vick has a ways to go (the Eagles are concerned about his inability to recognize blitz packages), but they got a starting QB/major impact player for nada.

How they win it all -- Vick’s running ability gives the Packers trouble this coming weekend, then the Eagles take advantage of a dry field and beat the Bears in Chicago. Vick then goes nuts against Falcons indoors.

How they could lose -- Any team capable of losing to the likes of Washington, Houston and Minnesota (throw out the Week 17 Green Bay defeat) is no lock. The Eagles give up 24 points a game, which puts pressure on the big-play offense.

5. GREEN BAY (10-6) -- It’s been an up-and-down season for the Packers, who figured to take control of the NFC North with the Vikings taking a huge step back. But the Bears surprised everyone and now the Pack face the prospect of winning three consecutive road games in order to get to the Super Bowl.

How they win it all -- They have the weapons on offense, but defensively the Packers have earned plenty of cred. They gave up the fewest points in the NFC (15 a game), and the 3-4 D installed by coordinator Dom Capers is perfectly designed to contain Vick this coming weekend. And if they catch the Bears the following week, they’ve already shown they can put Cutler on the ground.

How they could lose -- The road has a way of wearing down teams in the playoffs, and it just seems implausible that they could win at Philadelphia, at Chicago and (probably) at Atlanta in consecutive weeks.

6. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (7-9) -- Oh yeah, the Seahawks are in this too, aren’t they? Really? For a week, anyway. Fans in Seattle are so pessimistic about their team’s chances that a poll showed they wanted the Seahawks to miss the playoffs so they would get a higher draft pick.

How they win it all -- Phew. Pete Carroll no doubt is digging around for video of the 2008-09 Arizona Cardinals, who defied expectations and then bumbled and stumbled their way to the Super Bowl.

How they could lose -- As Dennis Green famously said, “They are who we thought they were.”