He doesn't come out and directly say it, but Jeff Mattingly from Bang the Book certainly gives some strong reasons to go with the Florida Marlins at home against the Colorado Rockies at Sun Life Stadium Thursday night to wrap up their four-game series. The Rockies are the underdog this game at anywhere between +175 to +200 and have a record of 2-6 in this situation the past three years, but their strong summer numbers help their case: they're 10-5 in July (+500) and 42-26 the past three years (+1100).

Still, the statistics certainly favor the Marlins this game. Here are some of the major points Jeff made:

1. Colorado's starter, Jorge De La Rosa, has two starts since coming off the disabled list and they haven't been pretty. In just 7.2 innings, he's given up 11 earned runs on just 10 hits for an ERA of 12.91. Also, in two road starts this year, he's 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA, giving up four home runs and nine walks in 8.1 innings.
2. Despite being even at home this season at 24-24 (-360), the Marlins have a slight scoring edge of 4.5 runs per game over their opponent's 4.4 runs per game. They're also 14-12 (+300) in day games this season and are 10-15 O/U in those outings.
3. Florida's starting pitcher for this game is Josh Johnson, a contender for the NL Cy Young award with a record of 10-3 and a league-low 1.62 ERA. His last outing consisted of a six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. His last start against the Rockies at home was last August, where he allowed just one run with 11 strikeouts, leading the Marlins to a 6-5 win.

Then again, the Rockies are 14-3 in the final game of a four-game series, and are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five starts on the road against a team with a losing record. It's easy to make a case either way in this one, but Jeff's points ultimately show the Marlins as the smart pick.

What's your call?

Pick: Marlins

MLB Picks via [Bank the Book]