Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays
Tigers +190
Rays -230
O/U - 8

The Tigers are four games out of the lead in the winnable American League Central, but it feels like 40. They’ve lost 10 of 12 since the All-Star break, have four regulars on the disabled list, and are starting to waste decent pitching efforts from their starters because of their inability to hit with runners on base. On Tuesday night they stranded 11 in a 3-2 loss to the Rays. Tonight they are raiding the bullpen -- reliever Eddie Bonine (4-0, 2.72) gets a spot start as Detroit desperately tries to stay in a 3-team scrum in the Central. RAYS worth a wager here despite the lousy number.

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Yankees -150
Indians +140
O/U - 9

Nobody has been paying a lot of attention, but the Yankees are getting some heat in the American League East -- Tampa Bay is just two games out. It’s not like the Yankees have hit a sandbar; NY has won five of its last seven. But the Yankees have not been crushing the ball -- after going over 7 straight times their games have gone under twice in a row in Cleveland, and the under deserves a serious look tonight. Fausto Carmona has won three straight and is coming off a terrific win over the Rays. Most of Carmona’s games tend to go under as the Indians can’t seem to score much for him. Then again, the Indians don’t score a lot of runs for any starter. Liking the trend to continue with another UNDER play here.


Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Dodgers +102
Padres -112
O/U - 6

You have to give the Padres a ton of credit for putting together a starting pitching staff seemingly out of nowhere. Clayton Richard goes tonight against the Dodgers, and he epitomizes what San Diego has done to stay atop the National League West -- get to the middle innings and then turn things over to what may be the best bullpen in the majors. Clayton is 7-5 with a 3.57 ERA, but there are warning signs that he is wearing down -- he’s 1-1 in his last four starts but was lit up in two no-decisions. Best bet here is the OVER on a very generous 6-run number.

He doesn't come out and directly say it, but Jeff Mattingly from Bang the Book certainly gives some strong reasons to go with the Florida Marlins at home against the Colorado Rockies at Sun Life Stadium Thursday night to wrap up their four-game series. The Rockies are the underdog this game at anywhere between +175 to +200 and have a record of 2-6 in this situation the past three years, but their strong summer numbers help their case: they're 10-5 in July (+500) and 42-26 the past three years (+1100).

Still, the statistics certainly favor the Marlins this game. Here are some of the major points Jeff made:

1. Colorado's starter, Jorge De La Rosa, has two starts since coming off the disabled list and they haven't been pretty. In just 7.2 innings, he's given up 11 earned runs on just 10 hits for an ERA of 12.91. Also, in two road starts this year, he's 1-1 with a 10.80 ERA, giving up four home runs and nine walks in 8.1 innings.
2. Despite being even at home this season at 24-24 (-360), the Marlins have a slight scoring edge of 4.5 runs per game over their opponent's 4.4 runs per game. They're also 14-12 (+300) in day games this season and are 10-15 O/U in those outings.
3. Florida's starting pitcher for this game is Josh Johnson, a contender for the NL Cy Young award with a record of 10-3 and a league-low 1.62 ERA. His last outing consisted of a six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. His last start against the Rockies at home was last August, where he allowed just one run with 11 strikeouts, leading the Marlins to a 6-5 win.

Then again, the Rockies are 14-3 in the final game of a four-game series, and are 5-0 in De La Rosa's last five starts on the road against a team with a losing record. It's easy to make a case either way in this one, but Jeff's points ultimately show the Marlins as the smart pick.

What's your call?

Pick: Marlins

MLB Picks via [Bank the Book]

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Angels +160
Yankees -180

There is a logical reason for the heavy line here -- the Yankees just devour right-handed starters at home, and while the Angels are 8-0 in Joel Piniero’s last 8 starts, it makes no sense at all to take LA even with the inflated +160 number. The Angels don’t have an easy game (Yankees, Rangers, Red Sox litter the schedule) for the rest of the month, and LA is a below-.500 road team this season. They could be is deep hole in the American League West by the time August rolls around. The Yankees have the look and feel of another 100-win team, and that should be more than enough in the AL East. When you can throw out Javier Vazquez at the bottom of your rotation, you know you don’t have too many concerns. NEW YORK here, even at the bad price.  

Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Red Sox -110
Athletics -110  

Oddsmakers are just playing for the vig here, but the value is with the home team. Boston’s Clay Buccholz is coming off a rehab Triple A start in which he didn’t get out of the fourth inning, and he hasn’t pitched into the 8th inning in any start since June 4. His overall numbers are good (10-4, 2.44), but he might not have enough stamina to go deep in this one. The Red Sox are gradually getting back players after a rash of injuries knocked them back a pace or two in the American League East, and they’re counting on their starting pitching to carry them to a wild card spot. Gio Gonzalez has been solid of late for the Athletics, going 2-1 in his last three starts and giving up only 6 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings. OAKLAND is the play here.  

Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Nationals -125
Reds +105

Hard to imagine the Nationals, who have scored a total of 8 runs in the last 5 games (including 4 in one game), being favored in any game in which Stephen Strasburg pitches. Strasburg (4-2, 2.04) is coming off six shutout innings in his last start, and should dominate this one since Reds hitters haven’t yet set eyes on him. Cincy is catching Strasburg at a bad time -- the Reds have been shut out 4 times in July, and 3 of those have been by 1-0 scores in the last 11 days. Ouch. Best bet here is WASHINGTON if you can get the Nats for the first 5 innings only. DC is reluctant to burn out Strasburg and is keeping him on a tight pitch count, but all bets are off after he leaves, and Washington’s offense is so bad it’s doubtful he’ll pick up any cheap wins.

Besides battle fatigue brought on after long NFL and NBA seasons, there is a good reason why baseball draws such little action from bettors -- it’s just too hard for Joe Public to understand and requires time and research. Why pore over a dugout-full of statistics when it’s easier to sit at the beach with a cold one?

And that’s a shame, because professional handicappers say that there is far more low-hanging fruit for bettors in baseball than in the more-easily-understood NFL and NBA.

The ying and yang of baseball betting can be complicated for wagering newcomers. Since many games finish with a one- or two-run difference, a point (or run) spread like those offered for football and basketball doesn’t make sense. So the odds are often manipulated in the moneyline or the vig.

Baseball is built on statistics, and betting baseball is not much different. If you don’t enjoy analyzing numbers, chances are pretty good that betting baseball will get tired very fast. But if you’re a Sabremetric nerd with a gambling jones, and are still years away from carpal tunnel syndrome, it could be what you’re looking for.

Legitimate handicappers offer dozens of systems for betting baseball, some legit and some gibberish. But there is one unassailable fact that needs to be taken into consideration when throwing down hard-earned money on a game – that is, approximately 44 percent of games are won by underdogs. Pros who can’t agree that on breakfast cereal will almost to a man tell you that the way to win money in baseball is to find value in a dog, and hammer it. And if you can find a division rival road dog that is hitting the ball halfway decent, all the better.

Veteran handicapper Steve Merril says that bettors can often find an edge by tracking a team’s offensive production, as oddsmakers more often than not will set lines based on teams’ starters.

“Betting lines are based on the starting pitchers,” says Merril, “so often this is already factored into the equation. I think current form, especially current offensive form, is something that is often overlooked by both the oddsmakers and the bettors. Teams definitely go through hot and cold streaks, especially on offense as these players are in the rotation every day as opposed to a starting pitcher which only appears every fifth game.”

Merril points to the Orioles series in Texas this past weekend. “[Baltimore] has been the worst team in baseball all season and they all of a sudden have gotten hot offensively, batting over .300 as a team the past week and they go a perfect 4-0 at Texas this weekend, including winning three of those four games outright as a +200 underdog or higher.  They outscored the Rangers 23-12 in those four wins and cashed a total of +9.8 units of profit on the moneyline. Baltimore had a similar hot streak at the end of June when they went 5-1 during a six-game period, outscoring their opponents 39-29 and cashing +4.2 units on the money line. If you remove those two recent hot streaks, the Orioles have been an atrocious 20-58 (.256) in all other games this season and -30 units on the money line.”

And if all this is a bit too much to deal with on a warm summer day, bear in mind that the first NFL exhibition game is less than a month away.

New York Mets at San Francisco Giants
Mets +1.5 (+155) Giants -1.5 (-175)
O/U - 7

The OVER here is hardly a gimmee, with Tim Lincecum going for the Giants, but the 7 appears to be an attractive number. New York’s R.A Dickey has lost three in a row and is starting to leak a bit, and Lincecum himself is 1-2 in his last three and not dominant of late. Toss in the fact that the Mets cover the over more often on the road than at home, and the added ammunition that NY has covered 6 of the last 7 in San Francisco, and you get the feeling that there will be some runs scored in this one. Go over.  

Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox
Rangers +1.5 (+140) Red Sox -1.5 (-160)
O/U - 9

Boston’s goal has been to keep its head above water while waiting for its injured players to return, but the Red Sox have fallen three games back of Tampa Bay in the wild card race. The Rangers have made a decent-sized splash in the American League West and like what they see in starter Tommy Hunter (5-0, 2.34 earned run average). Hunter has pitched only twice against Boston over the past two years, but he should give the Rangers an edge against spot starter Tim Wakefield. Wakefield (3-7) has been strafed of late and is not getting the job done at home (5.89 ERA at Fenway). Rangers, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 on the road, are the pick here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves
Brewers +1.5 (+130) Braves -1.5 (-150)
O/U - 8

The Brewers had high hopes of staying in the wild card race until late in the season, but despite three wins in a row leading to the All-Star break they have no realistic chance of getting to the postseason. The Braves started slow but have risen to the top of the National League East. Milwaukee’s Davis Bush has kept the Brewers in a lot of games and is 1-1 (with one no-decision) in his last three. Jair Jurrjens has been solid for Atlanta since returning from the minors, with a win over Washington and a no-decision against Philadelphia. Value here seems to be with the home team, with a lean toward the under for parlay players.

When "pro handicappers" offer free tips, it's safe to assume they're as close to a sure-bet as you can come. After all, they want you to be impressed by their intelligence enough to pay for the service!

That's why it might not be a bad idea to go with Jay Diamond from Locksmith Sports Picks who picked the Houston Astros at the San Diego Padres tonight, July 3 at 8:35 PM.
Jay says the Astros are in line to upset the Padres after dropping last night's game 3-0, and he offers up some pretty good reasons:

1. The Padre's projected starter, Kevin Correia, has an ERA that's approaching 8.0 for the month of June in just five starts. In his last three home starts, he's given up 24 hits and 14 runs in a mere 16 innings.
2. The Astro's projected starter Bud Norris is starting just his second game after coming off the DL but had a solid outing in his return against the Milwaukee Brewers with six strikeouts to one walk. Over 48 innings this season, Norris has rung up 60 batters.
3. Despite the goose egg yesterday, the Astro's bats had been alive in their previous four games scoring five, five, six and nine runs. Considering the Padre's lineup is fairly week, something along these lines from Houston should be enough.

They might be the underdog in the lines, but as Jay pointed out the numbers favor the Astros for this match up. Trust Jay's research on this one???

Pick: Astros

MLB Picks [via Locksmith Sports Picks]