Understanding Parlay Betting

Sports betting has its own language and much of its vernacular can be very daunting for people new to the arena. Going through the glossary, one term that may be confusing for some people is the concept of "parlay betting." What are parlay bets? And why can they be so popular with people interested in betting on sports?

What is Parlay Betting?

With most types of sports bets, a wager is placed on a single game. The outcome of that single game determines whether or the not the wager is a winning one. These offer standard payouts at expected odds. For betters who are more interested in making a greater profit with a smaller wager, parlay bets can be more lucrative. With parlay betting, a wager is placed across multiple bets in multiple games. Also known as an accumulator, a parlay is only successful if all the bets in the parlay are winners. If just one of the bets is incorrect, the entire parlay bet is considered a loser. The single greatest advantage to parlay betting is the potential for much higher payouts than what a person can expect to receive through standard betting. On the flipside, the chances (or odds) of having a successful parlay are also decidedly lower than they would be with a single bet. A typical parlay involves between three and eight games.

What are the Types of Parlays?

In general, there are two types of parlay bets and these cannot be combined into a single wager. On the one hand are point spread parlays and over/under parlays. These two types of bets can be combined into a parlay bet, allowing wagers to be placed across multiple games. These wagers can be against the point spread or played against the over/under (also known as "totals"). The assumption here is that each individual bet as part of the parlay has a 50-50 chance of being correct. On the other hand are moneyline parlays. Since the payouts for each individual moneyline bet are not the same, and the assumed probability of each moneyline bet being correct is not 50%, moneyline parlays cannot be combined with point spread parlays and over/under parlays. The calculation of the payout for moneyline parlays is also different from the point spread and over/under parlays.

What are Standard Odds and True Odds?

For individual point spread bets, the typical payout is on a 1:1 basis (less a commission for the sports book). However, this payout (and the associated odds) does not carry over perfectly for point spread and over/under parlay bets. Instead, parlay payouts follow a schedule based on standard odds. Standard odds, as defined by the sportsbook, determine the payouts for parlay bets. These will be different from the true odds, which represent the true probability of having a successful parlay bet.

  • 3-way parlay: 6-to-1 payout: 7-to-1 true odds
  • 4-way parlay: 10-to-1 payout: 15-to-1 true odds
  • 5-way parlay: 25-to-1 payout: 31-to-1 true odds
  • 6-way parlay: 40-to-1 payout: 63-to-1 true odds
  • 7-way parlay: 75-to-1 payout: 127-to-1 true odds
  • 8-way parlay: 150-to-1 payout: 255-to-1 true odds

The calculation of payouts for moneyline parlays take on a much more complex mathematical formula. You can preview the estimated payout using this parlay calculator, though the payouts are automatically calculated for wagers placed here on WinTheTrophy.

What Happens with Ties?

Typically, if one of the bets in the parlay is a tie (push), the parlay factor drops down one level. What was a 5-way parlay would then pay as a 4-way parlay should the other four bets be winning bets. If the parlay is dropped to a 2-way or a single bet, the payouts are pushed to 2.6 times the wager and 0.909 times the wager, respectively.

Posted by Michael Kwan Sat, 29 Aug 2009 14:10:00 GMT


Understanding Moneyline Betting

Walk into the sportsbook in any given Las Vegas hotel and one of the first betting lines that you will see for any upcoming sports match or game is the moneyline. For the novice player, the moneyline figures may look very confusing, because they may appear to be more difficult to understand than the popular point spread betting system. Mathematics and calculation aside, moneyline betting is actually the simplest form of betting and that’s why it is still the most popular way to bet on baseball and hockey games, as well as several other sports like boxing and tennis. This is because you don’t have to worry about the overall score when it comes to understanding moneyline betting; you just have to pick the team (or player, in the case of one-on-one sports) that you think will win.

Who is the Favorite? Who is the Underdog?

In understanding moneyline betting, the first thing that you’ll need to determine is which team is the favorite and which team is the underdog. Let’s take a look at an example moneyline: Baltimore Ravens -160 vs. Seattle Seahawks +130.  The team designated with a negative number (Ravens) is regarded as the favorite in the contest, whereas the team designated with a positive number (Seahawks) is regarded as the underdog for the contest. The absolute value of both numbers will always be over 100, meaning that a favorite will be assigned a number of less than -100 and the underdog will be assigned a number of more than +100. If a favored team has a moneyline of -200, it is perceived as a bigger favorite in its game than a favored team with a moneyline of -150. Similarly, if the underdog has a moneyline of +130, it is more of an underdog than a team with a money line of +120. In games where the two teams are perceived to be very evenly matched, you may not get a distinct favorite and a distinct underdog. Instead, both teams may be assigned a moneyline of -110. Regardless of whether you choose to bet on the favorite or the underdog, the goal of moneyline betting is simply to have your chosen team win the game. It doesn’t matter if they win by one point or 50 points: a win is a win.

Calculating the Favorite Payout

But what do all these numbers mean? Going back to our example of the NFL game between Baltimore and Seattle, we see that Baltimore is the favorite. You’ll also see that the moneyline for the Ravens is -160. This means that you need to wager $160 in order to win $100. You will also receive your original bet back should the Ravens win the game. As mentioned earlier, larger negative numbers indicate bigger favorites. If the Ravens have a moneyline on the game of -250, it would mean that you’d need to wager $250 for the chance to win $100. They’re likely to win, based on these numbers, but the payout relative to your wager is smaller.

Calculating the Underdog Payout

Again using our example of the Ravens and Seahawks, we see that Seattle is the underdog with a moneyline of +130. The calculation of the payout for betting on the underdog is a little different from the calculation of the payout for betting on the favorite. With a moneyline of +130, a successful bet of $100 receives a payout of $130 (in addition to the return of the original $100 wager). Continuing with this math, it would mean that a wager of $200 would return $260 and a wager of $10 would return $13. The payout is better than 1-to-1 and this is meant to compensate for the added risk of betting on the underdog, which is the team that is more likely to lose the game.

Posted by Michael Kwan Thu, 27 Aug 2009 22:10:00 GMT


Understanding Over-Under Betting

With most other forms of sports betting, the wager is placed based on picking the winner. Someone would bet on the New York Giants beating the San Francisco 49ers, for instance. This is not the case with over/under betting. Instead, the actual winner of the game does not matter in the context of this kind of betting. Understanding over/under betting, which is also known as betting totals, is actually very straightforward, though the decision process can be much more complex than betting on moneylines or point spreads. That's because many other factors go into the setting of the total by oddsmakers and sportsbooks.

How Over/Under Betting Works

Rather than choosing a winner of a game or match, as would be the case with moneyline betting and point spread betting, over/under betting gets bettors to decide if the total score in a game will exceed the predicted total score by the oddsmaker. It doesn't matter which team wins. Let's take the hypothetical example of an NFL game between the San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys. The Las Vegas sportsbooks may decide on a total score for the over/under betting of 43.5 points. This means that, at the end of the game, the oddsmakers believe that the combined score of San Diego and Dallas will be 43 or 44 points. To "take the over" means to wager that the total score for that game will be 44 points or more. The bet is that the actual total score will be "over" the predicted total score. To "take the under" means to wager that the total score for that game will be no more than 43 points. Continuing with this example, let's say that the hypothetical final score is 21-14. This is an actual total score of 35 (21+14). This is less than the over/under line of 43.5, so the "under" wager is deemed the winner. If the final score is 35-21, this is a point total of 46 (35+21). That is the over.

Payouts for Over/Under Wagers

Much like point spread betting, the payout system for over/under betting includes a commission for the sportsbook or whoever is accepting the wagers. The typical system would require a bettor to wager $110 to win $100. That $10 is the commission. While the price is typically -110, individual sportsbooks may offer slightly different payout schemes.

How Predicted Totals Are Determined

There are many factors that can go into the determination of a point total for a game for the purpose of over/under betting. In NFL football, two highly offensive-oriented teams will likely generate more points than two highly defensive-oriented teams. However, the matchups between the teams can also factor greatly into the determination of a total. The same can be said about NBA basketball. For MLB baseball, the starting pitchers can have a huge influence on the predicted total number of runs. This is because the top pitcher for a team may have a very low ERA and, thus, will likely allow very few runs. If the game has a starting pitcher that is fourth or fifth in the rotation, he is likely to have a higher ERA. As such, the number of total runs will likely be higher in that game.

Posted by Michael Kwan Thu, 27 Aug 2009 16:35:00 GMT


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